SIMULATION·TEST THE SHOCK BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Simulation

Put a figure on a shock before it hits

Describe a shock and your exposure: Kairos researches what the sources say, quantifies the impact on your costs, revenue and margin, and proposes countermeasures.

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Shocks are often debated without figures.

Rising energy prices, a closed shipping lane, new tariffs: the committee talks about it, but the effect on margin stays a hunch until someone does the maths.

01Hedges or stock decided too late

02Trade-offs based on unchecked orders of magnitude

03Countermeasures considered without comparing their effect

How it works

You describe the shock

A gas price rise, a closed strait, tariffs: in one sentence, or from an example. You choose the horizon.

You give your figures

The share of the item in your costs, your revenue, your margin: only your figures and sourced facts are used.

Kairos quantifies and proposes

Three scenarios (contained, base, severe) with the impact on costs, revenue and margin, the agent committee’s view, countermeasures and their trigger thresholds. Every calculation is redone and checked.

Who benefits?

Three roles, one shared need: putting a number on a risk before deciding.

CFO

PAIN

I have to tell the committee what an energy price rise would really cost.

SOLUTION

A measured impact on margin, with and without a hedge, based on our own figures.

Head of procurement

PAIN

I have to choose between stock, a second supplier and another route when a crisis looms.

SOLUTION

The scenarios side by side, with the effect of each countermeasure.

Head of strategy

PAIN

I want to test our plans against plausible shocks, not just the base case.

SOLUTION

Sourced simulations, kept on record and ready to turn into tracked decisions.

Real example

A real analysis, published as is.

The kind of shock a simulation puts figures on: what the sources say, the expected impact and the countermeasures. Produced by Kairos on 5 October 2026, from 12 sources. No figure edited.

EU Gas Winter 2026-27: Low-Buffer Crisis Threatens Energy-Intensive Industries

Natural gas and LNG for winter 2026-2027: European storage levels, TTF prices and the risk for energy-intensive industries (chemicals, steel, glass). What sh…

European gas storage entered the 2026-27 winter season at historically depressed levels — 71.5% as of September 29, versus a five-year average near 84–88% — creating a high-price, low-buffer environment that is not an immediate shortage but a sustained cost and volatility risk. Energy-intensive industries in chemicals, steel, and glass face a winter where TTF prices already near €81/MWh could spike further on any co…

Read the full report

Key findings

Storage trajectory is improving but structurally insufficient: filling progressed from 60.8% on August 17 to 71.5% on September 29, yet Europe injected only 70% of the g…
Non-consensus angle — the 80% target reduction is a false comfort: by lowering the mandatory threshold, the EC has reduced the political alarm signal without reducing th…
Forward-looking signal — Middle East LNG disruption is already embedded in current prices: EU gas stocks fell to a five-year low partly driven by persistent Middle East…

7.0/1012 sources3 actions6 min

All real examples