GEOPOLITICS17 May 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model for Strategic Intelligence
Most geopolitical risk frameworks remain qualitative and inconsistent. This article delivers a reproducible, multi-factor quantitative model—complete with weighting matrices, calibration data, and three live case studies—that converts geopolitical signals into actionable risk scores your investment and strategy teams can use today.
SOURCES
[1]WEF Global Risks Report 2024 — World Economic Forum, January 2024
[2]Political Risk Insurance Center (PRIC) — Comparative Sovereign Risk Model Meta-Analysis, 2023
[3]SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2023 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
[4]ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) — Regional Trend Reports 2022–2024, acleddata.com
[5]IMF World Economic Outlook — Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism, April 2023
[6]Resilinc Annual Supply Chain Disruption Report 2023 — Average Cost Per Disruption Incident Benchmark
[7]UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) v23.1 — Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University
[8]WJP Rule of Law Index 2023 — World Justice Project, worldjusticeproject.org
[9]BCG Global Supply Chain Resilience Survey Q4 2022 — Boston Consulting Group
[10]CSIS Significant Cyber Incidents Database 2023 — Center for Strategic and International Studies, csis.org