GEOPOLITICS23 July 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
A rigorous, reproducible framework for quantifying geopolitical risk across 12 dimensions, validated against 3 real-world crises. Includes a weighted scoring matrix, threshold triggers, and prioritized action protocols for corporate and investment decision-makers.
SOURCES
[1]World Bank (2024) — Global Trade Impact of Geopolitical Disruptions 2020–2024 Report
[2]IMF World Uncertainty Index (WUI) — Q1 2022–Q3 2024 Dataset, Ahir, Bloom & Furceri
[3]SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2024 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
[4]ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) — acleddata.com, 2024 Global Data
[5]CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2023) — 'Contested Seas: Wargaming Taiwan Strait Semiconductor Scenarios'
[6]BlackRock Investment Institute — Geopolitical Risk Indicator Methodology and Data, 2024
[7]McKinsey Global Institute (2023) — 'Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade' Survey Data
[8]UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Program — Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
[9]RSF Reporters Without Borders — World Press Freedom Index 2024
[10]JPMorgan Asset Management (2024) — 'Geopolitical Risk Screens and Portfolio Outperformance 2019–2024'