Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Applied Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond gut feelings and color-coded maps: a rigorous, reproducible quantitative framework for scoring geopolitical risk across 12 dimensions, validated against real-world market dislocations in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Red Sea corridor.
Executive Summary
Geopolitical risk has re-emerged as the dominant variable in global business strategy. According to McKinsey Global Institute (2024), geopolitical instability now ranks as the #1 concern for C-suite executives globally, surpassing inflation and talent shortages for the first time since the Cold War. Yet most organizations still rely on qualitative, narrative-driven assessments that lack reproducibility, comparability, and actionability.
This article presents the InekIA Geopolitical Risk Scoring (IGRS) Model — a 12-dimension, weighted composite index designed to produce a single, comparable risk score (0–100) for any country or bilateral trade relationship. The model draws on publicly available datasets from the IMF, World Bank, SIPRI, ACLED, and the Political Risk Services Group, making it fully replicable by any intelligence team.