GÉOPOLITIQUE9 septembre 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Practitioner's Quantitative Model
Most geopolitical risk assessments fail because they rely on narrative judgment rather than replicable data. This premium guide delivers a step-by-step quantitative scoring model — with calibrated weights, real-world back-tests, and actionable decision thresholds — so your intelligence team can price political risk like a systematic investor.
SOURCES
[1]McKinsey Global Institute, 'Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade,' 2023 — executive survey on geopolitical risk prioritization
[2]Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), acleddata.com — conflict event database used for CI pillar construction
[3]V-Dem Institute, 'Democracy Report 2024,' University of Gothenburg — Liberal Democracy Index used in PS pillar
[4]NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, 'Disinformation as a Precursor to Kinetic Conflict,' 2021 — IW pillar lead-time validation
[5]IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2024) and Debt Sustainability Analyses — EF pillar economic fragility inputs
[6]Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), Atlantic Council, Influence Operations Database 2022–2024 — IW pillar incident data
[7]Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), ucdp.uu.se — secondary validation source for CI pillar conflict onset events
[8]Lloyd's of London War Risk Premium Reports, H1 2024 — Red Sea case study insurance settlement data
[9]GDELT Project 2.0, gdeltproject.org — media tone index and event data for IW pillar
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