GÉOPOLITIQUE8 septembre 2026· 16 min
Geopolitical Risk Scoring: A Quantitative Model for Strategic Decision-Making
Beyond gut-feel assessments, a rigorous quantitative framework for geopolitical risk scoring gives strategists measurable, actionable intelligence. This article delivers a full methodology, calibrated weights, and three live case studies with measurable outcomes.
SOURCES
[1]IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 — 'Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism'
[2]SIPRI Arms Transfers Database 2024 — Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
[3]CSIS China Power Project — 'Tracking China's Military Exercises Around Taiwan' (2024)
[4]Freightos Baltic Index — Red Sea Disruption Impact Report Q1 2024
[5]Rhodium Group — 'EU-China FDI Monitor 2023 Annual Report'
[6]Bloomberg Economics — 'The Economic Consequences of a Taiwan Conflict' (October 2023)
[7]Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) — Global Conflict Tracker 2024
[8]World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) — 2023 Dataset
[9]European Central Bank — Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024: Red Sea Supply Chain Shock Analysis
[10]CHIPS and Science Act — US Department of Commerce Implementation Reports 2023–2024